Conference Speeches
Global Transport Scenarious 2060
Dr Einari Kisel
Regional Manager for Europe, World Energy Council Secretariat
Since 1970, the world has seen rapid growth in energy demand, met mainly by fossil fuels. The future will be different with radical new technologies and greater environmental challenges. World Energy Council calls this an uncertain journey – an adventure - into the new world of energy. The impact on transport is one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in the effort to decarbonise future energy systems. The diversification of transport fuels is one element that will contribute to reductions in the energy and carbon intensity of the transport sector. Globally, the light-duty vehicle fleet is expected to grow by 2.5 - 2.7 times by 2060. Developments in the vehicles’ powertrains could have the potential to reduce the use of oil in transport from 92% in 2014 to 60%, depending on the scenario. What are the ifs and buts?
Biofuels: An Honest Debate
Dr Chris Malins
A Globally Recognised Expert in Low Carbon and Clean Fuels Policy
Production and consumption of biofuels has grown steadily over the past decade in response, driven by policy measures adopted with a view to reducing GHG emissions. Biofuels provide one of the only options to significantly reduce the climate change impact of liquid fuel consumption. However, controversies remain and investors are cautious in the light of past experience and uncertainty. How can we find a path that steers effectively between the advantages of biofuels - which are fully integrated into today’s market and can serve all transport modes – and the range of concerns from NGOs. Is there enough science to create real evidence? Are all fuels being scrutinised according to the same criteria?
The Benefits of Ethanol in Gasoline – Real or Illusory?
Mr Nick Molden
Founder & CEO, Emissions Analytics
Reducing the carbon dioxide emissions from road transport is becoming an ever more pressing and challenging aim of government policy. Increasing the proportion of ethanol in the standard gasoline blend is seen as a relatively quick, easy and guaranteed method to achieve this, as it can theoretically be propagated through the downstream distribution chain. However, historically, there has been little data available on whether the real-world carbon dioxide emissions from combustion in the vehicle do in practice fall, or whether the benefit relies principally on carbon effects in the upstream ethanol production. Emissions Analytics has performed testing and examined the combustion effects on carbon dioxide emissions, and considered them alongside the effects on fuel consumption, consumer fuel costs and air quality pollutant emissions – across a representative sample of modern passenger cars. The results enable an informed policy view on whether the benefits are large enough to be attractive and deliverable.
Towards Sustainable Transport with Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
Mr Thorsten Herbert
Head of Programme Fuel Cells, German National Organisation Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology
With the increasing number of passenger cars on the road, the EU’s CO2 reduction goal for 2050 cannot be achieved by solely relying on improvements to the traditional internal combustion engine. In the light of technological breakthroughs in fuel cell technology the hydrogen powered vehicles has an important role in contributing to reductions of CO2 emissions in road transportation. There are many hydrogen-powered cars on the road already today and the refuelling infrastructure is developing. What are the prospects for further investments into the hydrogen network and infrastructure, in order to promote sustainable and emission free transport with hydrogen and fuel cells? What are the costs and who should they be borne by? What policy measures are needed to support this investment?
The Role of Petroleum Fuels in the Future of Transport
Mr Alessandro Bartelloni
Policy Director, FuelsEurope
The refining industry is in a constant flux of change, not only responding to the challenges of climate change, environmental and energy policy but also proactively addressing the emerging issues. Lower carbon intensity in transport may be achieved through a combination of measures: increased energy efficiency in the combination of enhanced ICE and high quality petroleum fuels, alternative fuels (including biofuels), new power-trains (electro mobility/hydrogen), smart traffic systems, drivers’ education and others. Also, the approach to lowering the GHG intensity from transport should not be only “Tank-To-Wheel”, but would take a broader view by including the GHG emission released during the generation of the fuels/energy (“Well-To-Wheel” approach) and even including the emission associated to the manufacturing and disposing/recycling of vehicles (“Life Cycle Assessment”). What answers can the refining sector give to these challenges? Are the implications of climate change policy fully understood in terms of industrial policy? Is a ban on gasoline and diesel cars by 2030, as discussed by some Member States, reasonable? How can the refining sector be part of the solution and keep providing its key contribution to the EU economy, to the employment of high skilled human resources and to the industrial value chain?
The Future of Electric Transport
Mr Renee Joost
Renewable Energy Development Manager at Eesti Energia
The share of electric vehicles is constantly growing and the pace of growth is accelerating. What does this trend mean for the power sector and will there be enough generating capacity to cover the growth in demand for electricity? What is the future of electric transport and what does it mean for the CO2 emissions from transport sector? What is the wider effect of electric vehicles for societies?